With government reports (e.g. CPI) disrupted by the shutdown and mixed signals from inflation and growth, corporate results are now the best source of visibility into what’s really happening economically across the economy. The next two days—packed with major earnings releases—could define not just how the quarter ends, but how investors see the path forward.

Currently, S&P 500 consensus expectations are tracking toward 7% revenue growth and 9% earnings growth in Q3, with profit margins steady at 12.8%—one of the strongest EPS growth rates since 2022. Notably, the “Magnificent Seven” are expected to post a 15% year-over-year EPS gain, down from 27% in Q2. The other 492 are expected to grow at 4%. 

We’re focused on a few themes in particular: 

Is the consumer still holding up? Early results suggest yes, though cracks are forming. Bank management teams describe the U.S. consumer as resilient, but consumer staples and retailers like Coca-Cola and P&G are increasingly noting “deceleration” in demand and a widening gap between higher- and lower-income shoppers.

What’s happening with inflation? Tariff-related price hikes and cost pressures are beginning to show up in company commentary. Automakers like GM and O’Reilly flagged rising input costs and emphasized that they’re still in the “early stages” of the consumer response to price adjustments. 

Are AI investments paying off? That’s the trillion-dollar question — and why this week’s Big Tech earnings are so pivotal. After a year of massive spending on infrastructure, investors want proof of progress and signs that efficiency gains will follow.

The next few days will bring reports from several of the market’s most influential names in AI, and with them, a clearer view of where growth — and sentiment — are headed.

Reporting tonight: 

• Alphabet: After a rally,the focus is on AI monetization across Search and YouTube, as well as updates on Cloud growth and Gemini 3 model. With cost efficiencies offsetting higher depreciation, Alphabet’s challenge will be proving that earnings—not just multiple expansion—can drive the next leg of gains. 

  • Consensus expects earnings to be $2.26 per share, a 6.8% growth rate, which is low versus their history. Looking ahead, Q4 expectations are for $2.55 per share or a year-over-year 19% growth rate. For 2026, the consensus is modeling about $77.5B in capex, up from about $64B. in 2025.

• Meta: The bull case rests on AI-enhanced advertising. Improved targeting and engagement through better AI models have been driving results, but investors are also watching closely for commentary on 2026’s projected $100B+ capex ramp. The key question: Can Meta sustain its profitability while funding its aggressive AI and hardware roadmap? Recent cost cutting announcements seem to be moving that way.

  • Consensus expects earnings to be $6.72 per share, an 11% growth rate, which is low versus their history. Looking ahead, Q4 comps are tougher where expectations are $8.11 per share or only a year-over-year 1.1% growth rate. For 2026, the consensus is modeling ~$97B in capex, up from ~$69B in 2025.

• Microsoft: Given momentum in multiple parts of its business, sentiment is positive already—although their vows with OpenAI were formally renewed yesterday, workloads are shifting to other platforms, which could potentially be a revenue headwind.

  • Consensus expects earnings to be $3.67 per share, an 11% growth rate, which is in line versus their history. Looking ahead, Q4 is expected to be at an 18% growth rate. The Street is looking for F26 capex of ~$88.4B (vs. $64.5B in F25).

Reporting tomorrow (Thursday): 

• Apple: Optimism is returning to the stock amid a strong iPhone 17 cycle. Investors are looking for confirmation of high single-digit revenue growth and margin upside as supply chains stabilize and tariffs ease. Guidance for December is expected to reinforce confidence in a multi-year product cycle, including the anticipated foldable iPhone next year. 

  • Consensus expects earnings to be $1.78 per share, an 8% growth rate. Looking ahead, Q4 earnings expectations are for $2.54 per share or a 6% growth rate, year-over-year.

• Amazon: AWS remains the flashpoint. Investors want evidence that growth will reaccelerate as GPU and data center supply constraints ease and AI workloads scale. Despite mixed sentiment around Amazon’s AI positioning, core retail trends seem solid. Margin pressures from infrastructure spending could weigh on near-term results, but optimism persists around profitability.

  • Consensus expects earnings to be $1.57 per share, a 10% growth rate. Looking ahead, Q4 earnings expectations are for $1.86 per share or virtually 0% growth rate, year-over-year. However, 2026 is expected to yield 14% in earnings growth.

With reports from market heavyweights, the coming days will undoubtedly offer a clearer picture of both growth and market sentiment. The "trillion-dollar question" of AI investments paying off will be a defining theme, with investors keenly watching for tangible progress and efficiency gains.

Source for consensus expectations: Factset