Prediction markets / Midterms / Control of Congress

2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

Democrats, 8 to 10%25¢
Democrats, 6 to 8%21¢
Democrats, 10 to 12%18¢
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Timeline

Trading hours
24 hours a day, except Thursday 3AM-5AM ET
Event day
November 3, 2026
Contract resolves
Determines the outcome of the contract
Payout
Usually within 1 hour of event resolution

About

What will be the 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.Get $1 for every contract you own if your prediction is correct. Or close your position before the event resolves. Additional fees apply. Read the full contract terms and conditions

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