Prediction markets / Midterms / Control of Congress

California's 4th District margin of victory

Mike Thompson, 20+ pts97.0¢
Mike Thompson, 10+ pts54¢
Mike Thompson, 2+ pts12¢
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Timeline

Trading hours
24 hours a day, except Thursday 3AM-5AM ET
Event day
November 3, 2026
Contract resolves
Determines the outcome of the contract
Payout
Usually within 1 hour of event resolution

About

What will be the California's 4th District margin of victory?The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Mike Thompson minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Mike Thompson if Mike Thompson wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Mike Thompson loses.Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Mike Thompson runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Mike Thompson will be summed.If Mike Thompson wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Mike Thompson loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Mike Thompson ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Mike Thompson is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).Get $1 for every contract you own if your prediction is correct. Or close your position before the event resolves. Additional fees apply. Read the full contract terms and conditions

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