Prediction markets / Midterms / Control of Congress

MO-01 Democratic primary margin of victory

Wesley Bell, ≥15%99¢
Wesley Bell, 3-6%30¢
Wesley Bell, 12-15%4¢
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Timeline

Event day
August 4, 2026
Trading hours
24 hours a day, except Thursday 3AM-5AM ET
Contract resolves
Determines the outcome of the contract
Payout
Usually within 1 hour of event resolution

About

MO-01 Democratic primary margin of victory The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type:For percentage points:
  • The vote percentage received by the specified candidate minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the specified candidate if they win, or the candidate/party that finishes first if they lose.
For raw votes:
  • The total votes received by the specified candidate minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the specified candidate if they win, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if they lose.
For electoral votes:
  • The electoral votes received by the specified candidate minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if they win, or the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if they do not win.
Range Rules:
  • Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
  • No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.
Example:
  • A margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5–6% range
  • A margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6–7% range
Additional Rules:
  • If the specified candidate runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
  • If the specified candidate wins the election, the margin will be positive.
  • If the specified candidate loses the election, the margin will be negative.
  • If the specified candidate ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.
  • For uncontested races where the specified candidate is the only candidate, the margin shall be:
    • 100 percentage points, or
    • the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
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Trading prohibitions

  • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
  • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
  • Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event

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