Prediction markets / Elections / Texas

Texas Republican Senate Runoff: Margin of Victory

Ken Paxton, 0-5%32¢
John Cornyn, 0-5%23¢
Ken Paxton, 10-15%19¢
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Timeline

Trading hours
24 hours a day, except Thursday 3AM-5AM ET
Event day
May 26, 2026
Contract resolves
Determines the outcome of the contract
Payout
Usually within 1 hour of event resolution

About

What will be the margin of victory in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff?The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type:For percentage points:
  • The vote percentage received by the specified candidate minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the specified candidate if they win, or the candidate/party that finishes first if they lose.
For raw votes:
  • The total votes received by the specified candidate minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the specified candidate if they win, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if they lose.
For electoral votes:
  • The electoral votes received by the specified candidate minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if they win, or the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if they do not win.
Range Rules:
  • Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
  • No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.
Example:
  • A margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5–6% range
  • A margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6–7% range
Additional Rules:
  • If the specified candidate runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
  • If the specified candidate wins the election, the margin will be positive.
  • If the specified candidate loses the election, the margin will be negative.
  • If the specified candidate ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.
  • For uncontested races where the specified candidate is the only candidate, the margin shall be:
    • 100 percentage points, or
    • the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
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