Prediction markets / Politics / Policy

How long will the government shutdown last

At least 30 days99¢
At least 35 days95¢
At least 40 days92¢
LIVE
1D
1W
MAX

Select a contract

Timeline

Event day
February 14, 2026
Trading hours
24 hours a day, except Thursday 3AM-5AM ET
Contract resolves
Determines the outcome of the contract
Payout
Usually within 1 hour of event resolution

About

How long will the government shutdown last? A shutdown is defined as the government's orderly suspension of agency work that is not legally excepted, typically accompanied by furloughing the employees who perform that work, when funding is unavailable. Shutdown status is recorded at 10:00 AM ET each day. Partial shutdowns are included. A shutdown lasting "at least X days" requires the shutdown to be in effect at 10:00 AM ET on X+1 consecutive days. For example, if a shutdown is first in effect at 10:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026, and remains in effect at 10:00 AM ET on October 2, 2026, the shutdown has lasted at least 1 day.Examples that would count toward the shutdown day count:
  • OMB releases a formal directive that orders heads of the affected agencies to “execute plans for an orderly shutdown,” which is in effect as of 10:00 AM ET on the relevant date
  • OPM posts a current operating status that indicates that “due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency”
  • During an ongoing shutdown, OPM posts a status referencing an Executive Order excusing employees for a holiday, but does not indicate the government has resumed normal operations
Examples that would NOT count toward the shutdown day count:
  • A technical lapse in appropriations occurs, but OMB directs agencies to continue standard operations
  • Government closures or operating status changes resulting exclusively from Federal holidays, inclement weather, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations Get $1 for every contract you own if your prediction is correct. Or close your position before the event resolves. Additional fees apply. Read the full contract terms and conditions

Trading prohibitions

  • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
  • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.

Similar events

Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
Will the ACA premium tax credits be extended this year?
Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026
How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
Who will lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?
Will crypto market structure legislation become law
Will members of Congress be banned from trading stocks
Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?
Will legislation restricting institutional single-family home investment become law this year?
Will Trump order more tariffs in Mar 2026
Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Futures, options on futures and cleared swaps trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances.
Read the Event Contracts Risk Disclosure for more information about the risks associated with event contracts.
Live data is for informational purposes only. It maybe delayed or incorrect.
Event contracts are offered by Robinhood Derivatives, LLC through either KalshiEX LLC or ForecastEX, LLC.