Prediction markets / Politics / Policy

How long will the government shutdown last?

At least 50 days77¢
At least 55 days55¢
At least 60 days30¢
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Timeline

Event day
February 14, 2026
Trading hours
24 hours a day, except Thursday 3AM-5AM ET
Contract resolves
Determines the outcome of the contract
Payout
Usually within 1 hour of event resolution

About

What will be the duration of the first US federal government shutdown between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026 due to a lapse of appropriations? Shutdown status is recorded at 10:00 AM ET each day. Partial shutdowns are included. A shutdown lasting "at least X days" requires the shutdown to be in effect at 10:00 AM ET on X+1 consecutive days. For example, if a shutdown is first in effect at 10:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026, and remains in effect at 10:00 AM ET on October 2, 2026, the shutdown has lasted at least 1 day.Examples that would count toward the shutdown day count: -OMB releases a formal directive that orders heads of the affected agencies to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown," which is in effect as of 10:00 AM ET on the relevant date. -OPM posts a current operating status that indicates that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency". -During an ongoing shutdown, OPM posts a status referencing an Executive Order excusing employees for a holiday, but does not indicate the government has resumed normal operations.Examples that would NOT count toward the shutdown day count: -A technical lapse in appropriations occurs, but OMB directs agencies to continue standard operations. -Government closures or operating status changes resulting exclusively from Federal holidays, inclement weather, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations.Get $1 for every contract you own if your prediction is correct. Or close your position before the event resolves. Additional fees apply. Read the full contract terms and conditions

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