Prediction markets / Politics

How long will the government shutdown last?

More than 10 days99¢
More than 11 days99¢
More than 12 days99¢
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Timeline

Event day
October 1, 2025
Trading hours
24 hours a day, except Thursday 3AM-5AM ET
Contract resolves
Determines the outcome of the contract
Payout
Usually within 1 hour of event resolution

About

How long will the the ongoing federal government shutdown (starting October 1) last? A shutdown is determined by notices on the U.S. Office of Personnel Management website indicating the federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse in appropriations. Days are counted based on notices checked at 10:00 AM ET each day. If there are multiple government shutdowns during the relevant period, this market only applies to the first shutdown, as the market will resolve after the end of the first shutdown. Notices of emergency furloughs or impacted government operations count toward the shutdown days. Office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not count. Days count toward the total when OPM's website indicates an ongoing shutdown due to lapsed appropriations, regardless of whether such days are also federal holidays. Note: this event is directional. Get $1 for every contract you own if your prediction is correct. Or close your position before the event resolves. Additional fees apply. Read the full contract terms and conditions

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