Recession in ㅤ2027

Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026

How much will the US acquire Greenland for?

Kash Patel out as FBI Director

Will members of Congress be banned from trading stocks

Which companies will the US take a stake in this year

Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?

Who will lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?

Will the Clarity Act become law

Recession this year?

Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?

Will Trump order more tariffs in Nov 2026

World leaders out before 2027?

Will the SAVE Act become law

Will the ACA premium tax credits be extended this year?

Will credit card rates be capped this year?

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense

Government shutdown in 2027

Will "SAVE Act" (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027?

Before Jan 4, 2027

Will the SAVE Act become law If the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Get $1 for every contract you own if your prediction is correct. Or close your position before the event resolves. Additional fees apply. Read the full [contract terms and conditions](https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/contract_terms/BILL.pdf)

24 hours a day, except Thursday 3AM-5AM ET

Trading hours

Contract resolves

Usually within 1 hour of event resolution

Payout

Will Rodney Scott leaves CBP Commissioner in before 2027?

Rodney Scott

Will Greg Bovino leaves USBP Commander-at-Large in before 2027?

Greg Bovino

Will Brooke Rollins leaves Secretary of Agriculture in before 2027?

Brooke Rollins

Will Susie WIles leaves Chief of Staff in before 2027?

Susie Wiles

Will Tom Homan leaves White House Border Czar in before 2027?

Tom Homan

Will Tulsi Gabbard leaves Director of National Intelligence in before 2027?

Tulsi Gabbard

Will Steve Witkoff leaves Special Envoy to the Middle East in before 2027?

Steve Witkoff

Will Stephen Miller leaves Deputy Chief of Staff in before 2027?

Stephen Miller

Will Sean Duffy leaves Secretary of Transportation in before 2027?

Sean Duffy

Will Scott Bessent leaves Secretary of the Treasury in before 2027?

Scott Bessent

Will Russell Vought leaves OMB Director in before 2027?

Russell Vought

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leaves HHS Secretary in before 2027?

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Will Todd Blanche leaves Deputy Attorney General in before 2027?

Todd Blanche

Will Peter Navarro leaves Senior Counselor to the President for Trade and Manufacturing in before 2027?

Peter Navarro

Will Pete Hegseth leaves Secretary of Defense in before 2027?

Pete Hegseth

Will Pam Bondi leaves Attorney General in before 2027?

Pam Bondi

Will Marco Rubio leaves Secretary of State in before 2027?

Marco Rubio

Will Mehmet Oz leaves CMS Administrator in before 2027?

Mehmet Oz

Will Mike Huckabee leaves Ambassador to Israel in before 2027?

Mike Huckabee

Will Lee Zeldin leaves EPA Administrator in before 2027?

Lee Zeldin

Will Linda McMahon leaves Secretary of Education in before 2027?

Linda McMahon

Will Kash Patel leaves Director of the FBI in before 2027?

Kash Patel

Will Kristi Noem leaves Secretary of Homeland Security in before 2027?

Kristi Noem

Will John Ratcliffe leaves Director of the CIA in before 2027?

John Ratcliffe

Will Karoline Leavitt leaves White House Press Secretary in before 2027?

Karoline Leavitt

Will Jamieson Greer leaves United States Trade Representative in before 2027?

Jamieson Greer

Will Howard Lutnick leaves Secretary of Commerce in before 2027?

Howard Lutnick

Will Bill Pulte leaves FHFA Director in before 2027?

Bill Pulte

Will Brendan Carr leaves Chairman of the FCC in before 2027?

Brendan Carr

Will Amy Gleason leaves Acting Administrator of the US DOGE Service in before 2027?

Amy Gleason

Will David Sacks leaves Special Advisor for AI and Crypto in before 2027?

David Sacks

Will Steven Cheung be out as White House Communications Director before 2027?

Steven Cheung

Will Ric Grenell leaves Special Presidential Envoy for Special Missions in before 2027?

Ric Grenell

Will Kevin Hassett leaves Director of the National Economic Council in before 2027?

Kevin Hassett

Will Kelly Loeffler leaves Administrator of the Small Business Administration in before 2027?

Kelly Loeffler

Will Tilman Fertitta leaves Ambassador to Italy in before 2027?

Tilman Fertitta

Will Joe Gebbia leaves Chief Design Officer in before 2027?

Joe Gebbia

Will Mike Waltz leaves Ambassador to the United Nations in before 2027?

Mike Waltz

Will Sergio Gor leaves Ambassador to India in before 2027?

Sergio Gor

Will Brad Cooper leaves Commander of U.S. Central Command in before 2027?

Brad Cooper

Will Dan Caine leaves Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in before 2027?

Dan Caine

Will Christopher Landau leaves Deputy Secretary of State in before 2027?

Christopher Landau

Will James Blair leaves Deputy Chief of Staff for Legislative, Political and Public Affairs in before 2027?

James Blair

Will Stanley Woodward leaves Associate Attorney General in before 2027?

Stanley Woodward

Will Todd Blanche leaves Attorney General in before 2027?

Will Doug Collins leaves Secretary of Veterans Affairs in before 2027?

Doug Collins

Will Trent McCotter leaves Deputy Attorney General in before 2027?

Trent McCotter

Will Will Scharf leaves White House Counsel in before 2027?

Will Scharf

Will Meghan Bauer leaves White House Cabinet Secretary in before 2027?

Meghan Bauer

Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer leaves Secretary of Labor in before 2027?

Lori Chavez-DeRemer

Will Doug Burgum leaves Secretary of the Interior in before 2027?

Doug Burgum

Will Scott Turner leaves Secretary of Housing and Urban Development in before 2027?

Scott Turner

Will Chris Wright leaves Secretary of Energy in before 2027?

Chris Wright

Who will leave their role in the Trump Administration in 2026? The person in question must have an actual departure date by vacating the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. If the role otherwise ceases to exist with no plausible successor, the contract may resolve to "No." For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term. Get $1 for every contract you own if your prediction is correct. Or close your position before the event resolves. Additional fees apply. Read the full [contract terms and conditions](https://assets.kalshi.com/contract_terms/EFFECTIVELEAVE.pdf)

Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Sep 1, 2026?

Before Sep 1, 2026

Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Jun 1, 2026?

Before Jun 1, 2026

Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Oct 1, 2027?

Before Oct 1, 2027

Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Jul 1, 2027?

Before Jul 1, 2027

Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Apr 1, 2027?

Before Apr 1, 2027

Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Feb 1, 2027?

Before Feb 1, 2027

Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2027?

Before Jan 1, 2027

Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Nov 16, 2026?

Before Nov 16, 2026

Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Jul 1, 2026?

Before Jul 1, 2026

Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Aug 1, 2026?

Before Aug 1, 2026

Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Dec 1, 2026?

Before Dec 1, 2026

Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Nov 1, 2026?

Before Nov 1, 2026

Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Oct 1, 2026?

Before Oct 1, 2026

Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2029?

Before Jan 1, 2029

Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Jul 1, 2028?

Before Jul 1, 2028

Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2028?

Before Jan 1, 2028

Will Pete Hegseth leave his position as Secretary of Defense? Pete Hegseth must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period.

If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. If the role otherwise ceases to exist with no plausible successor, the contract may resolve to "No."

For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term. Get $1 for every contract you own if your prediction is correct. Or close your position before the event resolves. Additional fees apply. Read the full [contract terms and conditions](https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/contract_terms/EFFECTIVELEAVE.pdf)

There is a recent rules clarification from The Exchange, which can be found below.

Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?

Diosdado Cabello Rondón

Will Vladimir Padrino López be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?

Vladimir Padrino López

Will Edmundo González Urrutia be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?

Edmundo González

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?

Delcy Rodríguez

Will Donald Trump be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?

Donald Trump

Will Dinorah Figuera be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?

Dinorah Figuera

Will Dan Caine be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?

Will Stephen Miller be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?

Will Juan Guaidó be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?

Juan Guaidó

Will Miguel Rodríguez Torres be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?

Miguel Rodríguez Torres

Will Richard Grenell be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?

Richard Grenell

Will Pete Hegseth be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?

Will Nicolás Maduro be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?

Nicolás Maduro

Will Marco Rubio be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?

Will María Corina Machado be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?

María Corina Machado

Will Jorge Rodríguez be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?

Jorge Rodríguez

Will Frank Donovan be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?

Frank Donovan

Will Evan Pettus be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?

Evan Pettus

Clarification (04/15/26): To help clarify this market, if the Expiration Date were today at this time, this market would resolve Yes to Nicolás Maduro and No to all other strikes.

Under the Payout Criterion, a person “officially holds” the role if any one of three criteria is met: (i) the person has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn into the role; (ii) the person is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as holding the role; or (iii) the person is actively serving in the role with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified). 

Maduro satisfies (i) and (ii). Maduro was sworn into his current term on January 10, 2025. Venezuelan state institutions currently recognize Maduro as the constitutional president and treat Delcy Rodríguez as the acting president. A Supreme Tribunal of Justice ruling affirmed Maduro as the constitutional president and ordered Rodríguez to serve in an acting capacity. The National Assembly, Defense Ministry, Rodríguez herself, and the Presidency website all continue to identify Maduro as the official president. Because Rodríguez serves only in an acting capacity, she does not satisfy "officially holds."

Maduro satisfies the Payout Criterion based on his formal appointment to the role, his swearing-in, and his continued recognition as the officeholder by the authoritative government sources prioritized by the Source Agency hierarchy. His detention in the United States is not disqualifying under the Payout Criterion absent a formal termination, resignation, removal, or expiration of his term as recognized by the listed Source Agencies.
This clarification reflects current facts. If circumstances change — including a formal removal, resignation, expiration of term, or formal designation of a successor as constitutional president — Kalshi will resolve the Contract in accordance with the Payout Criterion based on those facts.

Who will officially hold the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET? For the purposes of this contract, "officially holds" means any of the following:

-The person has been formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela
-The person is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as the head of state of Venezuela
-The person is actively serving as the head of state of Venezuela with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified)

The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role:

-Nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective
-Appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026
-Previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026
-Serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity
-Named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed
-Holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. 

Get $1 for every contract you own if your prediction is correct. Or close your position before the event resolves. Additional fees apply. Read the full [contract terms and conditions](https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/contract_terms/ROLEONDATE.pdf)

Given the potential ambiguity surrounding resolution for these contracts, no new positions can be opened for this market. You can still close existing positions.

Will Mette Frederiksen leave as Prime Minister of Denmark before Jan 1, 2027?

Mette Frederiksen

Which world leaders will leave, or officially announce their intention to leave office before Jan 1, 2027? An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the official body governing the office that the person will be departing from the office. Such announcements must be reported by at least one Source Agency to be considered official. The announcement must not specify they are leaving in more than a year from the statement, in which case the market does not resolve to Yes.
"Leaving office" means the person no longer holds the office in any capacity, including but not limited to: resignation (effective), termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or the expiration of their term without renewal. Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or delegation of duties while retaining the office do NOT constitute leaving office. Death does NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion for this Contract. Forced departures (termination, impeachment and removal, etc.) satisfy the Payout Criterion even without a prior announcement. Get $1 for every contract you own if your prediction is correct. Or close your position before the event resolves. Additional fees apply. Read the full [contract terms and conditions](https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/contract_terms/LEAVEOFFICE.pdf)

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