It might seem bad, but the worst that can happen when you buy a stock (without leverage) is that its share price goes to zero. But when you pick a company that

Hess shareholders are still up 196% over 3 years despite pulling back 3.4% in the past week

Bearish flow noted in Hess Corp. with 6,573 puts trading, or 3x expected. Most active are Jan-24 145 puts and Jan-24 140 puts, with total volume in those strike

Hess Corp. put volume heavy and directionally bearish

Hess' Bakken footprint includes peripheral acreage that may not generate the same stellar flow rates that the firm is currently reporting. Well performance deteriorated in 2022.

Hess' Guyana assets offer similar returns to the best shale fields, but the capital requirements are heavily front-load, dampening the cash generation potential for years yet (and precluding more generous shareholder distributions).

Liza was sanctioned at a very fortuitous point in the cost cycle, and finding and development costs have been steadily rising for follow-up developments in Guyana.

Hess' activity in Guyana provides geographic diversification and insulates it from domestic issues (like infrastructure constraints or the threat of antifracking regulations).

Due to the scale of prize and supported by favorable fiscal terms, Guyana supply costs are well below the global margin cost threshold and competitive with the best shale resources.

The Stabroek block (Guyana), in which Hess has a 30% stake, is a huge resource, with at least 11 billion barrels of oil equivalent recoverable. It will account for 2% of global oil supply by 2030.

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Hess

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