Fill likelihood

What is fill likelihood?

This is the likelihood that your options order will be filled (or executed) at the limit price based on our predictive models. This is our way of estimating how “marketable” your option order is.

How is fill likelihood calculated?

Fill likelihood is calculated based on historical options data drawn from attributes like: bid, ask, size, last sale price, date, time, and distance from the spread. Our model predicts the likelihood that your order will get filled within three seconds after submission based on three predefined thresholds (low, medium, high).

These thresholds are determined by the amount of “false positive” predictions that the model is willing to accept versus the amount of “actual positives” (correct predictions) it makes. Balancing between the two metrics allows us to determine low, medium and high likelihood zones. Our model then provides your order’s fill likelihood based on where it falls across these thresholds.

These labels should be used for informational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation or investment advice. Keep in mind that fill likelihood is an estimate of your order being filled at the limit price and that order fills may depend on a number of factors not accounted for in the model.

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Options trading entails significant risk and is not appropriate for all customers. Customers must read and understand the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before engaging in any options trading strategies. Options transactions are often complex and may involve the potential of losing the entire investment in a relatively short period of time. Certain complex options strategies carry additional risk, including the potential for losses that may exceed the original investment amount.

Robinhood Financial does not guarantee favorable investment outcomes. The past performance of a security or financial product does not guarantee future results or returns. Customers should consider their investment objectives and risks carefully before investing in options. Because of the importance of tax considerations to all options transactions, the customer considering options should consult their tax advisor as to how taxes affect the outcome of each options strategy. Supporting documentation for any claims, if applicable, will be furnished upon request.

Any contents provided are for informational purposes only, does not constitute investment advice, and is not a recommendation for any security or trading strategy

Reference No. 20220425-2168222-6794213
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