Prediction markets / Economics

How many days will the federal government be shut down before March

More than 1 day99¢
More than 2 days99¢
More than 3 days99¢
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Timeline

Event day
January 30, 2026
Contract resolves
Determines the outcome of the contract
Payout
Usually within 1 hour of event resolution

About

How many days will the U.S. federal government be at least partially shut down between Jan 25, 2026 and Feb 28, 2026? A shutdown is determined by notices on the U.S. Office of Personnel Management website indicating the federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse in appropriations. Days are counted based on notices checked at 10:00 AM ET each day. If there are multiple government shutdowns during the relevant period, this market only applies to the first shutdown, as the market will resolve after the end of the first shutdown. Notices of emergency furloughs or impacted government operations count toward the shutdown days. Office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not count. If no shutdown occurs during the period, markets asking for counts above zero resolve to No, while markets asking for zero days resolve to Yes. Note: this event is directional. Get $1 for every contract you own if your prediction is correct. Or close your position before the event resolves. Additional fees apply. Read the full contract terms and conditions

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