Recession this year?

Recession In 202625¢

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Recession In 2026

25¢

Timeline

Trading hours

24 hours a day, except Thursday 3AM-5AM ET

Event day

January 31, 2027

Contract resolves

Determines the outcome of the contract

Payout

Usually within 1 hour of event resolution

About

Will there be a recession this year? If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for. Get $1 for every contract you own if your prediction is correct. Or close your position before the event resolves. Additional fees apply. Read the full contract terms and conditions

Trading prohibitions

Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.

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Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Futures, options on futures and cleared swaps trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances.

Read the Event Contracts Risk Disclosure for more information about the risks associated with event contracts.

Live data is for informational purposes only. It maybe delayed or incorrect.

Event contracts are offered by Robinhood Derivatives, LLC through either KalshiEX LLC or ForecastEX, LLC.