Recession this year?
Recession In 202610¢
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Recession In 2026
10¢
Timeline
Trading hours
24 hours a day, except Thursday 3AM-5AM ETEvent day
January 31, 2027Contract resolves
Determines the outcome of the contractPayout
Usually within 1 hour of event resolutionAbout
Will there be a recession this year? If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for. Get $1 for every contract you own if your prediction is correct. Or close your position before the event resolves. Additional fees apply. Read the full contract terms and conditions
Trading prohibitions
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
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Event contracts are offered by Robinhood Derivatives, LLC through either KalshiEX LLC, ForecastEX, LLC or Rothera Exchange and Clearing LLC.