Prediction markets

Best AI at the end of 2025

Gemini93%
Grok4%
ChatGPT3%
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Gemini - 93¢Grok - 4¢ChatGPT - 3¢

Which companies will have a #1 AI model this year?

Meta4%
Anthropic3%
Nvidia3%
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Meta - 4¢Anthropic - 3¢Nvidia - 3¢

Which AI company will have the best coding model on Jan 1, 2026?

OpenAI74%
Anthropic23%
Google5%
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OpenAI - 74¢Anthropic - 23¢Google - 5¢

Which AI will be the first to hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena?

Gemini12%
Grok5%
ChatGPT3%
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Gemini - 12¢Grok - 5¢ChatGPT - 3¢

How many cities will Waymo be operating in at the end of 2025?

3 cities93%
5 cities6%
4 cities3%
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3 cities - 93¢5 cities - 6¢4 cities - 3¢

AI capability growth this year?

At least 1500 Elo score11%
At least 1550 Elo score3%
At least 1600 Elo score2%
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At least 1500 Elo - 11¢At least 1550 Elo - 3¢At least 1600 Elo - 2¢
Dec 31
8.33M8,333,598
Best AI at the end of 2025
Gemini
93%
+ 6 contracts
Jan 1
776k776,479
Which companies will have a #1 AI model this year?
Meta
4%
+ 8 contracts
Jan 1
565k565,385
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Jan 1, 2026?
OpenAI
74%
+ 6 contracts
Jan 1
507k507,871
Which AI will be the first to hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena?
Gemini
12%
+ 4 contracts
Dec 31
505k505,728
How many cities will Waymo be operating in at the end of 2025?
3 cities
93%
+ 13 contracts
Jan 1
134k134,422
AI capability growth this year?
At least 1500 Elo score
11%
+ 2 contracts
Jan 1
59k59,645
Will a Chinese AI model reach #1 this year?
Before 2026
4%
Jan 1
44k44,635
Will an AI generated song be on the Billboard Hot 100?
Before 2026
4%
Jan 1
43k43,168
Will an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess this year?
Before 2026
3%
Jan 1
26k26,392
Will Meta release Llama 5 before January?
Before 2026
3%
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