Prediction markets / Elections

Texas Republican Senate Runoff: Margin of Victory

Ken Paxton, 0-5%27¢
John Cornyn, 0-5%22¢
Ken Paxton, 5-10%16¢
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Timeline

Trading hours
24 hours a day, except Thursday 3AM-5AM ET
Event day
May 26, 2026
Contract resolves
Determines the outcome of the contract
Payout
Usually within 1 hour of event resolution

About

What will be the margin of victory in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff? If the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff falls between 5% and 10%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
  • For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Ken Paxton minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ken Paxton if Ken Paxton wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Ken Paxton loses.
  • For raw votes: the total votes received by Ken Paxton minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ken Paxton if Ken Paxton wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Ken Paxton loses.
  • For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Ken Paxton minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Ken Paxton wins, or the electoral votes received by Ken Paxton minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Ken Paxton does not.
Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ken Paxton runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Ken Paxton will be summed.If Ken Paxton wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Ken Paxton loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Ken Paxton ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Ken Paxton is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes). Get $1 for every contract you own if your prediction is correct. Or close your position before the event resolves. Additional fees apply. Read the full contract terms and conditions

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