Texas Senate Republican primary margin of victory

John Cornyn, 0-3%90¢

Ken Paxton, 0-3%8¢

Ken Paxton, 3-6%2¢

LIVE

MAX

Select a contract

John Cornyn, 0-3%

90¢

Ken Paxton, 0-3%

8¢

Ken Paxton, 3-6%

2¢

Timeline

Trading hours

24 hours a day, except Thursday 3AM-5AM ET

Event day

March 3, 2026

Contract resolves

Determines the outcome of the contract

Payout

Usually within 1 hour of event resolution

About

What will be the margin of victory in the first round of the 2026 Texas Senate Republican primary? The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the winning candidate minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind if the candidate wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the candidate loses. For raw votes: the total votes received by the winning candidate minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the candidate if the candidate wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if the candidate loses. For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by the winning candidate minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if the candidate wins, or the electoral votes received by the candidate minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if the candidate does not. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If a candidate runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural person will be summed. If a candidate wins the election, the margin will be positive. If a candidate loses the election, the margin will be negative. If a candidate ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where there is only one candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes). Get $1 for every contract you own if your prediction is correct. Or close your position before the event resolves. Additional fees apply. Read the full contract terms and conditions

Trading prohibitions

Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.

IL-09 Democratic nominee

Texas Senate Democratic primary turnout

Texas Senate Democratic primary margin of victory

Texas Senate primary: Democrats have higher turnout than Republicans

Which states will redistrict before the midterms?

NC-04 Democratic nominee

NC-01 Republican nominee

Tom Cotton vote percent in the Arkansas Senate GOP primary

Texas Republican Senate nominee

Texas Democratic Senate nominee

Wisconsin Republican Governor nominee

Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Futures, options on futures and cleared swaps trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances.

Read the Event Contracts Risk Disclosure for more information about the risks associated with event contracts.

Live data is for informational purposes only. It maybe delayed or incorrect.

Event contracts are offered by Robinhood Derivatives, LLC through either KalshiEX LLC or ForecastEX, LLC.