In markets, traders build a universe, apply a framework, and narrow in on the highest-probability opportunities. This session brings that same discipline to the 2026 midterm elections—through the lens of prediction markets.
Moderated by Walter Hickey, Executive Editor of Sherwood Media, the conversation brings together Danny Moses, renowned trader and investor featured in The Big Short; Matt Rhoades, veteran political strategist and former presidential campaign manager; and Patrick Ruffini, Founding Partner of Echelon Insights and an expert in polling, voter behavior, data analytics, and demographic trends.
Using polling, fundraising, historical trends, demographic data, and prediction-market pricing, the panel will narrow the universe of House, Senate, and gubernatorial races into a focused watchlist while exploring broader markets like control of Congress. Where do polling and market prices agree? Where do they diverge? And what factors could change the probability of an outcome?
Using Robinhood’s Midterm Elections Prediction Markets Hub in real time, the session will blend trading, campaign, polling, and data expertise to show how traders can filter noise, quantify uncertainty, and build a systematic framework for trading the 2026 midterms.
Walter Hickey
Executive Editor, Sherwood Media
Danny Moses
Moses Ventures, LLC
Matt Rhoades
Managing Partner, CGCN Group
Patrick Ruffini
Founding Partner, Echelon Insights