Robinhood event contracts
An event contract is a type of financial derivative that allows traders to speculate on the outcome of a specific event. These contracts are generally structured around Yes or No outcomes, and fluctuate in price based on the projected outcome of the event. Event contracts then pay out if the position held matches the correct outcome of the event; otherwise, they expire worthless.
Some contracts may not be available in every state or territory.
You must have a Robinhood Derivatives account to purchase event contracts through Robinhood. Review eligibility and application for details.
When you buy Yes contracts for an event, you’re selecting “yes” to the event question. When you buy No contracts for an event, you’re selecting "no" to the event question.
Lets say there’s a binary election between Candidate A and Candidate B. If you believe Candidate A will win the event, you could purchase Yes contacts for Candidate A. Depending on the contract, however, you may also be able to purchase No contracts for Candidate B, selecting the same outcome.
The cost of each contract is the price you pay to open your position, between $0.01-$0.99. The price you receive (or the execution price) for any opening or closing trade will be the market price of the contract you’re trading.
After opening a contract position, you can then choose to hold the contract until final settlement when the contract expires, or close it before the event resolves.
Each position is closed by trading the opposite side of the same contract. For example, if you hold 50 Yes contracts and want to close out of the entire position, you’d sell this position, which is the same as buying 50 No contracts for the same contract.
The value of your position is then based on whether you hold a contract until final settlement or close it before the event resolves.
When you hold a contract until final settlement, the settlement value will either be $1 for the correct outcome, or $0 for an incorrect outcome.
When you close a position, the profit or loss for each contract will be the difference between your opening and closing price for a contract.
Some event questions may include a double negative. For example, if the event question is “Will there be NO change in price?” and you purchase No contracts, you’re speculating that there WILL be a change in price.
You can now follow along with the latest prediction market events in sports, politics, and more. These push notifications about new events are turned on by default. If you’d like to turn them off or customize which notifications you’d like to get for Prediction market events, follow the steps in Update your notification settings. For more details about notifications in general, review Notifications and messages.
Because we’re adding new event contract categories as part of a rolling release, you may not have access to them just yet.
Once a contract becomes available to trade, the Timeline section provides the following information.
Exact processing times for payouts may vary. The payout date and the date funds are available for withdrawal are not the same. Proceeds from payouts will be available for withdrawal within 2 business days of the final trade or settlement date.
To buy an event contract:
To close a position:
Each contract is worth $1 upon settlement. However, the value of each Yes and No position for a contract may not always add up to $1 exactly. This can occur for multiple reasons, such as when:
All event contract orders are marketable immediate or cancel (IOC) limit orders. We don’t offer stop or limit orders. Furthermore, these contracts trade on an open market at a regulated exchange, meaning there must be a market participant willing to take the opposite side of your order for your trade to execute. If your order is unable to be executed in a timely manner, it means that the exchange was unable to match and execute your order, or there is no one willing to participate in the opposite position. In the event your order is unable to execute, it will be canceled or rejected.
To purchase event contracts through Robinhood, you must apply for, and have an approved, Robinhood Derivatives account.
To open a Robinhood Derivatives account and trade event contracts, you must have an open individual investing account.
To apply for a Robinhood Derivatives account:
Residents of Maryland (MD) won’t have access to event contracts.
You can navigate to the Investing screen and select Prediction Markets to enter the hub and browse all the currently available contracts.
From the prediction markets hub you can swipe left or right to explore different contract categories—such as professional and college football, economics, culture, and more. Live scores and real-time updates are available for all sports-related contracts beginning early September.
Robinhood charges a $0.01 commission per contract bought or sold. There are no additional commissions or fees to hold your position until final cash settlement.
Depending on the exchange the contract is offered through, there will also either be an exchange fee, typically $0.01 per contract bought or sold, or a spread built into the price of the contract.
If there’s an exchange fee, then the exchange makes its money based on the fee charged to trade the contract.
If there’s a spread, then the price of a Yes position and a No position may add up to slightly more than $1, typically $1.01. The exchange makes its money based on the spread amount over $1 per contract offered.
The maximum profit you can make per contract is generally the difference between the contract price for the side you’re purchasing and $1 (minus any applicable fees and spreads).
Exchange fee: Let's say you buy a Yes contract trading at $0.47. The contract has a $0.01 exchange fee and a $0.01 Robinhood commission per contract traded. This makes your total cost per contract $0.49. If you hold the correct outcome, the total value of the contract is worth $1, which means you have a maximum potential profit of $0.51 per contract you hold ($1- $0.49).
Spread: Let’s say you buy a Yes contract at a price of $0.60 per contract. The exchange that executes the orders embeds $0.01 within the price of the contract, so that the value of Yes and No sides add up to $1.01, and there are no exchange fees charged on this transaction. There is also a Robinhood commission of $0.01. This brings your total cost per contract to $0.61 ($0.60 + $0.01 commission). At settlement, the value of the correct contract side will be worth $1, which means your maximum potential profit is $0.39 per contract ($1 - $0.61).
Your Robinhood Derivatives account is funded through your investing account. However, the amount available for trading event contracts (known as your event contract buying power) may be slightly different from what’s shown in your investing account. This is because the buying power used to purchase derivatives is calculated differently. You can view your event contract buying power in Investing → Buying power.
With Instant Deposits, you may be able to instantly trade with a portion of a pending deposit.
However, Instant Deposits generally can't be used for highly volatile trades, so you may need to wait 2-4 business days for your deposits to settle before you can trade event contracts by using these funds. You can continue to use Instant Deposits to trade stocks and ETFs.
If you’re having trouble with Instant Deposit access and want to purchase event contracts, you can deposit funds through debit card funding or by wire transfer.
If you request a full or partial account transfer (ACAT), from your Robinhood account to another brokerage firm, any event contract positions that you request to be transferred may be held until expiration, when the funds are fully paid out, then swept to your other account as part of the transfer.
Trading hours may vary depending on the event contract. You can see the trading hours of each contract on the Timeline within the event detail page.
Liquidity and volatility can be more dramatic than traditional equities markets, which might affect whether your orders get filled. With these fluctuations, you might see more order cancellations or rejections if the price you enter can’t be matched or if market conditions change significantly.
If your order is unable to be executed quickly, it could be because the exchange couldn’t match your order or there weren’t participants on the other side. All event contract orders are submitted as IOC limit orders and will be canceled or rejected if they aren’t immediately filled.
Event contracts also have a maximum number of contracts you can hold per contract side per event known as the position limit. This limit varies by contract.
In rare circumstances, events may result in outcomes that fall outside of the standard expectations — for example, a tie in a sports event, a walkover in a tennis match, or delays in the release of official government job data. Depending on the event, these outcomes may affect how payouts are determined.
When an outcome falls outside of standard expectations, the exchange determines the fallback mechanism for payouts. You can review some of the possible non-standard payouts and scenarios below.
The final settlement of all contracts is determined by the exchange.
Possible outcomes and the result:
A tie or a draw in a boxing or pro football match: Payout is typically $0.50 to both sides
A walkover in a tennis match: Payout may be resolved by using:
A golfer withdraws due to injury: Payout typically resolves to No
A hockey overtime loss: Payout results in the contract Yes or No outcome, there’s no exception for a loss in overtime
Outcome data becomes unavailable or unclear: In some cases, the information used to determine a market’s outcome can become unavailable or difficult to verify. An exchange may use the most recent fair market data or another reasonable method to determine settlement.
A data source changes or stops publishing: If a data provider stops publishing reports or changes how it calculates data, an exchange can review whether another data source may reasonably be used instead. Any new source would generally need to be objective, verifiable, and comparable to the original one. However, an exchange generally won’t replace a source simply because a dataset ends or could be substituted with something similar. For example, if a polling aggregator stops releasing data, an exchange may decide not to use another aggregator that calculates results differently.
An event data release is delayed: If an event or data release is postponed—for example, due to a government shutdown—an exchange can adjust the timing of the market’s expiration to align with the new schedule. In the case of government data delays, an exchange may wait for the data to be released or for the source agency to confirm that the release will not occur. If data ultimately can’t be released, an exchange can use the most recent available data to determine settlement.
Clarifications of market language: If an exchange identifies that a market’s language could be interpreted in more than one way, it can issue a clarification explaining how the situation may be handled. Trading may be temporarily paused while participants are notified of these details.
Special situations involving individuals: If a market or event involves a specific individual, an exchange may take additional steps to prevent situations that could appear to profit from a person’s death or injury. In such cases, the market may be settled using the last fair price available before the event occurred.
Robinhood event contract payments may be reported on applicable 1099 forms where required by rules and regulations. Robinhood doesn’t provide tax advice. For questions about your specific tax situation, consult a tax professional.
Settlement payments for an event contract are reported for the applicable tax year in which you receive them. For example, if you received a payment in 2025, it’ll be reported for the 2025 tax year.
Robinhood is able to offer event contracts through Robinhood Derivatives and its membership with the partnered exchanges regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Robinhood event contracts allow for speculation in prediction markets—these are not bets.
Each contract represents an approximate probability between $0.01 and $0.99, with each cent effectively representing a 1% probability that the event will occur. For example, if a contract is priced at $0.53, this can be interpreted as a 53% probability that it will occur according to that market.
This allows participants to assign a probability to the outcome and take advantage of any perceived undervaluation.
Note that for some event contracts, the exchange that executes your orders may embed $0.01 within the price. Therefore the two sides of the contract may add up to $1.01 or 101%. So, it’s not an exact probability.
You can only own a Yes or No contract for one side at a time.
The spread is the margin of victory that attempts to equalize the odds. Think of the spread as the points an event starts with.
The total is the expected combined points scored in an event, which is also known as the over/under. You can buy a contract predicting that the total combined points will be greater than (over) or less than (under) a specific amount.
Depending on the outcome of the event, the payout or settlement is $1 or $0 for each contract that you own.
Robinhood charges a $0.01 commission for each contract traded. The exchange that executes your orders may also charge a fee of $0.01. Review our Fee Schedule for more details.
An IOC order is an immediate-or-cancel order to buy or sell that must be executed immediately. Any part of an IOC order that can't be filled immediately, will be canceled.
We won’t increase or decrease your buying power based on the gains or losses of the event contract while you hold a position.
We’ll credit your account after you close your position or receive a payout. Note that your buying power may not update until the funds are transferred from your Robinhood Derivatives account to your Robinhood Financial account. This process typically occurs the next business day after the event settles, except when US banks are closed.
You can find all the current event contracts by searching event contract or prediction markets. You can also go to Investing → Prediction markets to view the list.
We may offer contracts for the following categories:
All eligible customers in supported states can apply to trade event contracts. If you can’t access or trade event contracts and know that you’re eligible, a pending B-Notice is one possible reason.
We’ll credit your account after you close your position or receive a payout. Note that your buying power may not update until the proceeds are transferred from your Robinhood Derivatives account to your Robinhood Financial account. This process typically occurs the next business day after the event settles, except when US banks are closed. You can then use the proceeds to trade other assets or make a withdrawal.
An order may only partially fill because event contract orders are submitted as marketable immediate-or-cancel (IOC) limit orders. This means the order will only execute if a market participant is willing to take the opposite side right away. If only part of the order is matched, that portion may fill and the unfilled portion will be canceled or rejected. Partial fills can occur when only a limited number of contracts are available on the opposite side. These may be more common during less liquidity. For example, when the outcome of an event is all but certain (like the end of a blowout event).
Currently, event contracts are only available to trade in-app.
In addition to the general prohibition against trading on material nonpublic information, each exchange will institute additional prohibitions for trading the contract.
The individuals specified in Kalshi’s Appendix B will also be prohibited from trading.
ForecastEx (“FCX”) prohibition rules can be found in the rulebook for each event which can be found on the event details page.
Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Futures, options on futures, and cleared swaps trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Carefully consider if it's appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Displayed prices are based on real-time market sentiment.
Read the Event Contracts Risk Disclosure for more information about the risks associated with event contracts.
Futures, options on futures and cleared swaps trading is offered by Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, a registered futures commission merchant with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and Member of National Futures Association (NFA).